2026.4.14 US Stock Market Brief

The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to ten consecutive days. The S&P 500 closed at 6,967.38, up 1.18%. The Nasdaq finished at 23,639.08, up 1.96%. The Dow ended at 48,535.99, up 0.66%. This rally has been nearly as fast as the selloff when the conflict broke out in late February.

Two threads are driving the move — one geopolitical, one inflation — and both turned at the same time today.

Start with Iran. Trump told the New York Post that U.S.-Iran talks could resume within two days in Pakistan. Pakistan has called on both sides to extend the ceasefire by at least 45 days. The U.S. military is still enforcing its Strait of Hormuz blockade — Bloomberg reported six ships turned around on the first day — but the blockade increasingly looks like a bargaining chip rather than a war footing. On Polymarket, the contract for “military action ends by April 17” has hit 100%, and “permanent peace deal by April 22” jumped from 10% yesterday to 24%.

WTI crude plunged 8.05% in a single day to $91.10. Energy (XLE) fell 2.03%, the only sector meaningfully in the red. Tech (XLK) gained 1.60%, and consumer discretionary (XLY) rose 2.21%.

Now inflation. March PPI came in at 4% year-over-year, below the 4.6% consensus, and the 0.5% month-over-month reading was well under the expected 1.2%. Core PPI was just 0.1% month-over-month. The narrative chain of the past few weeks — oil spike → inflation spiral → forced Fed hike — broke at the PPI link. Polymarket puts the probability of a rate hike at the April FOMC meeting at 0%, with a 50bp+ cut also at 0%.

On individual names, mega-cap tech rallied across the board. META rose 4.41%, AMZN 3.81%, NVDA 3.80%, GOOGL 3.61%, TSLA 3.34%. AMZN had a more specific catalyst, announcing an $11.57 billion acquisition of Globalstar — a direct move into satellite communications that puts it on a collision course with SpaceX. After hours, META and MSFT continued to edge higher, TSLA added 0.49%, while AMD slipped 0.69% — the only discordant note.

The VIX dropped to 18.36, down nearly 4%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.26%. The dollar index closed at 98.20, down 0.17%.

Bloomberg reported six ships turned back on the first day of the Hormuz blockade, and Kenya has sharply raised gasoline prices. The blockade is still in place, but the S&P 500 is less than 0.5% from 7,000. The market is clearly pricing in a containable conflict.