Stock Daily — April 1, 2026

All three major indexes rose for the second straight day. The Nasdaq led with a 1.2% gain, the S&P 500 closed at 6,575.32 up 0.72%, and the Dow added 0.48%. Tech (XLK) rose 1.51%, Industrials (XLI) gained 1.67%, and Energy (XLE) dropped 3.74% — the worst-performing sector by far. The market is trading one very clear narrative: the war is almost over.

Trump told Reuters this morning that military objectives have been achieved and the war will end within two to three weeks, “whether or not a deal is reached.” He then posted that Iran had requested a ceasefire and the US would comply once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson denied this within half an hour, calling it “pure fabrication.” The market completely ignored Iran’s denial and kept pushing higher. The logic is simple: the most feared scenario had been the US getting bogged down in a prolonged ground war. Now that the president himself has drawn a two-to-three-week timeline — true or not — the market at least has an endpoint it can price.

There was one intraday pullback when media reported the US was deploying 18 A-10 attack aircraft to the Middle East. The S&P dropped nearly 40 points from its session high but was bought right back into the close. This tells you the market’s underlying sentiment has shifted from panic to “buy the dip on war’s end.” Polymarket puts the probability of US ground forces entering Iran before April 30 at 60%, but the odds of a ceasefire before April 7 at just 2%. The market is selectively seeing only the implied “there’s an end-date” in the former while ignoring the implied “no peace in the near term” in the latter.

Macro data handed the bulls unexpected ammunition. February retail sales came in at +0.6% MoM, slightly beating expectations. March ADP added 62,000 jobs, well above the 40,000 forecast. ISM Manufacturing hit 52.7, the highest since August 2022. This data at least temporarily suppressed the recession narrative that had been building over the past two weeks. But note one contradiction: the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.46% has risen for five consecutive weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.32%. With the war pushing inflation expectations higher, rates are climbing rather than falling — the squeeze on rate-sensitive consumer spending will show up with a lag.

The 3.74% drop in Energy was counterintuitive. Brent is still around $107 and WTI above $100 — oil prices didn’t fall, but energy stocks did. The reason: Iran’s deputy foreign minister threatened to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian media outlet Fars News listed bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Jordan as “potential military targets.” These escalation signals made the market start pricing in infrastructure risk to oil-producing nations, prompting capital to flee energy stocks for safe havens. Gold touched $4,674 intraday, another all-time high. The dollar index fell to 99.65 — safe-haven flows choosing gold over the dollar is a signal worth watching.

According to Politico, the US Treasury has begun modeling oil at $100-plus as its base-case scenario, has not ruled out an extreme spike to $200, and is exploring the use of emergency powers to restrict crude exports. The White House denied the report, but the denial itself confirms Washington is already discussing the possibility. Analysts warn the real supply shock wave won’t hit US end markets for roughly two more weeks, with diesel and jet fuel prices facing sharp jumps.

The S&P has rallied 300 points from its lows over two trading days. That kind of speed is entirely driven by short covering and sentiment repair, not fundamental improvement. The index is now pinned against dual resistance at the annual and monthly moving averages. Historically, the first retest of the annual moving average after a sharp selloff gets rejected at an extremely high rate. Unless there’s a substantive positive catalyst — such as formal reopening of the Strait or an official ceasefire agreement — the bulls will have a very hard time holding this level.

Two things to watch next: whether Trump’s national address tonight provides specific conditions and a timeline for a ceasefire, and whether oil can pull back from above $100. If the speech is just another vague “it’ll end soon” without any substantive response from Iran, this rally most likely exhausts itself around 6,600, and a pullback to the 6,400–6,500 range is the more realistic path. On the other hand, if there’s any verifiable progress on reopening the Strait, the upside opens up. Right now it’s not about calling direction — it’s about reading the rhythm.