2026.9.11 US Stock Daily | Rate Hike Odds Hit 80%, Indices Still Climb
The S&P closed at 7656.98, up 0.86%; the Nasdaq at 26333.04, up 0.96%; the Dow at 52573.29, up 0.98%. On the same day, Polymarket priced the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September meeting at 80%, with “hold” at 20% and a cut at 0%. Goldman Sachs revised its own forecast from “hold” to “September hike.” Fox Business’s headline that day read that core inflation data was pushing the Fed toward a hike, while the Wall Street Journal’s headline said the inflation report had lifted hike odds.
On a day when hike odds hit their ceiling, all three indices rose, and the VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84. That Wall Street Journal piece offered an explanation: Wall Street is cheering because the Fed’s path has become clearer, even at the cost of higher rates. For those holding positions, ambiguity is more expensive than tightening — a claim backed by real money today.
The bond market didn’t join the celebration. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.97%, pressed against the 5% line. With the VIX at 15.84 alongside a long end at 4.97%, equities are pricing this as “the hike is known, so it’s already priced in” — bad news out of the way — while the rate side hasn’t budged an inch from the 5% threshold. Before next week’s FOMC meeting, at least one of these two prices will have to admit it’s wrong.
Oil is another pillar of support. WTI fell 2.43% to 99.99, just dipping below 100, and Bloomberg credited the strength in futures to cooling oil prices and Oracle’s earnings. On the news front, there is indeed word that the US currently does not plan to strike Houthi forces in Yemen. But Polymarket puts the odds of “normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz resuming by September 15” at 0%, and the Iraqi prime minister’s office confirmed today that the drone attack targeting Saudi Arabia originated from within Iraqi territory, dismissing a military commander over it. The geopolitical premium is retreating from the headlines, but the shipping lane itself hasn’t changed.
On tech, the Magnificent Seven index rose 1.03% to 228.01, but is still down 0.26% for the week — today’s green candle didn’t fill in the week’s hole; the same-basis mega-cap tech index is up 0.95% for the week. According to reports, Anthropic is in talks to bring in Nvidia as an anchor investor, with Nvidia potentially investing $10 billion, possibly creating the largest IPO in history. If this money materializes, capital from the chip side would be flowing directly into valuations on the model side, making it harder to disentangle the capital flows within the industry chain from the outside.
The divergence in the options signals table is more jarring than the index numbers: META’s RSI is already at 71, while AMZN sits at just 38.7. Beneath the surface of the index’s 0.86% gain, the leaders are standing at two extremes.
One more thing not to file away as mere political news: Trump has promised a $5,000 dividend for three straight days now, funded by tariffs. The Fed is tightening, the White House is promising to hand out money — this combination is setting a floor under next year’s inflation.
Next week’s meeting is the only judge that matters. If the 25bp hike lands and the dot plot confirms MarketWatch’s headline about “possibly three more hikes,” then a VIX at 15.84 is a mispricing, and I’d shift my positioning toward defense. If oil climbs back above 100 and the Strait still hasn’t resumed normal transit by the 15th, then the inflation question is nowhere near resolved, and hike pricing will need to keep climbing.