9.1.2026 US Stock Daily | US Airstrikes on Iran, Oil Jumps 5.8% as Bonds and Stocks Both Sell Off

WTI crude closed at $90.77, up 5.84% on the day. US Central Command issued a statement saying US forces had begun striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran in response to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The trigger was a disclosure from Greek maritime risk management firm Marisks that two VLCCs, the Sidr and the Senegal Prosperity, were hit by unidentified projectiles Tuesday morning while transiting out of Hormuz; the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency also confirmed a tanker was struck three times by projectiles after departing port and clearing the strait, without disclosing the vessel’s name. Iran said it struck Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base and claimed multiple US bases in Kuwait were hit by explosions. The US embassy in Qatar issued a security alert warning of possible escalation.

The stock market’s reaction was, if anything, restrained. The S&P 500 closed at 7631.47, down 0.71%; the Nasdaq at 26099.77, down 1.03%; the Dow at 52766.88, down 0.79% — all three major indices closed lower. The VIX closed at 16.34, up 9.52%, but still at a low absolute level. The S&P printed a doji on the daily chart, hugging the 7600 level.

The most abnormal reading today is in the bond column. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.80%, and the 30-year briefly touched 5.288%, one of the highest levels since 2006 — the year has already seen 55 trading days close above 5%. On a day when military conflict escalated, long-dated bonds were sold anyway. The textbook safe-haven playbook is stocks down, bonds up; today both went down together. That tells you the market isn’t pricing this as a risk event — it’s pricing it as an inflation event. When safe-haven assets stop being safe, no piece of a 60/40 portfolio is working.

Polymarket’s probability distribution for the September FOMC meeting lays out this logic even more plainly: a 25bp hike at 58%, no change at 40%, a 25bp cut at 1%, and a cut of 50bp or more at 0%. The rate-cut column has essentially been crossed out. This oil spike will only push the distribution further toward a hike.

Sectors closed 4 up, 7 down. Gainers: Energy +1.27%, Utilities +0.78%, Healthcare +0.66%, Consumer Staples +0.32%. Losers: Consumer Discretionary -1.72%, Technology -1.53%, Industrials -1.37%, Materials -1.18%. This mix is the textbook shape of a stagflation trade — defensives plus crude up, growth and cyclicals getting hit together.

More worth watching than how much Brent has risen is the diesel crack spread, which has now cleared $100 a barrel. Crude is a price; the diesel crack spread is a cost — it flows directly into the bills for trucking, rail, farm equipment, and power plants, and it’s the transmission channel that determines whether this price spike actually lands in CPI.

So why is the VIX only at 16? Two other Polymarket tables give the answer: the probability of a US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 16%, while the probability that the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through September 30 sits at 82%. The market’s read is that this will escalate but not expand into a full-scale war. But the same crowd holds the opposite view on a different question: the probability that transit through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal is only 3%. Both numbers can hold true at once — conflict not widening and shipping not resuming are two different things, and it’s the latter that actually determines where the price of oil settles. The real mispricing risk here isn’t World War III — it’s treating an impassable strait as a three-week news story.

Rising rates aren’t just a US story either. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield hit a 30-year high, and term premiums across the global long end are rising in tandem — that 5.288% on the US long bond isn’t an isolated reading.

On positioning, ARKK cut its Palantir stake by 9.6% while adding to Block (+10.2%) and Rocket Lab (+51.3%); ARKW made the same move — trimming Palantir, adding Block. This is a positioning action, not a stated view, but directionally it’s a rotation out of the software narrative and into hardware and payments. In options, SPY has now fallen for three straight days, while the call/put ratios on Nvidia and Meta remain above 3. At the index level, sellers are in control; at the mega-cap stock level, dip buyers haven’t left yet.

What would change my mind. First, actual transit volumes through Hormuz — if insurance premiums and the rate of vessels rerouting start to come down, that 3% figure on Polymarket will move first, and oil would then lose its support, unwinding today’s entire stagflation trade. Second, the relationship between long-end rates and volatility — with the 10-year hugging 4.80% and the VIX only at 16, it means no one is seriously hedging yet; once these two numbers start moving in the same direction, that’s when real trouble begins. Third, Iranian President Pezeshkian’s remarks on state television, in which he said Iran is willing to take reciprocal steps if the US honors the commitments in the memorandum of understanding. If that turns into concrete action in the coming days, every price in today’s report needs to be recalculated.