2026.5.5 US Stock Daily | Oil Down 4%, S&P and Nasdaq Hit New Highs

S&P 7259.22 up 0.81%, Nasdaq 25326.13 up 1.03%, both all-time highs. Dow 49298.25 up 0.73%, VIX down to 17.38. WTI fell 3.9% to $102.27—oil was today’s main event. Bloomberg’s headline gave the trigger directly: Trump paused part of the US military’s operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides easing off, and the market was willing to knock the strait risk down a notch.

But there’s a gap between pricing and reality. Polymarket has “strait back to normal transit by May 15” at 3%, “by end of May” at 16%, “by end of June” at 42%. “US invades Iran before 2027” sits at 26%. The market doesn’t believe normal shipping returns anytime soon, yet today it was happy to give back oil’s geopolitical premium first. These two things can’t both hold for long—either the strait is genuinely reopening, or oil prices head back up.

Sector gains are broadening beyond tech. Tech XLK led at +2.21%, Materials XLB +1.74%, small-cap IWM +1.68%, Industrials XLI +0.84%. But within tech, the split is clear: AMD +4.02%, Apple +2.66%, Google +1.35% were pulling the index up, while Nvidia -1%, Meta -0.89%, Microsoft -0.54%, Tesla -0.8% were dragging it down. Three of the Magnificent Seven rallied today; the other four were all red.

After-hours spotlight was AMD. Regular session closed up 4.02% at 355.26, then the earnings report dropped and it got bought straight up to $414, +16.53% on 13.49 million shares. AMD is the second most important name in the AI narrative after Nvidia—a move of this magnitude after hours will almost certainly spill over into the broader semiconductor sector tomorrow. Asian markets already front-ran it: China’s STAR 50 surged 8.25% in a single day with semiconductors exploding across the board, and Bloomberg ran a separate headline: “China’s Tech Gauge Jumps to Record High on AI-Fueled Rally.” The AI supply chain is repricing globally in sync.

Apple up 2.66%. The story about Apple considering partnerships with Intel and Samsung to produce some chips is still developing. If TSMC’s exclusive foundry position actually loosens, the impact goes beyond Intel’s foundry business—the entire advanced-node supply chain gets reassessed. This thread is still at the “considering” stage; it won’t be a real signal until actual orders land.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 3bp to 4.42%, while the 30-year is still hovering near the 5% mark. Bloomberg reported that traders are starting to bet Waller-led Fed might hike first before cutting. If this pricing continues to build, the Treasury narrative shifts from a term premium story to a policy path divergence trade. If the curve flattens again, that’s direct pressure on duration valuations for growth stocks.

Two things to watch next: how fast AMD’s after-hours news spreads through the semiconductor sector, and actual shipping transit data from the Strait of Hormuz. If transit doesn’t actually improve but oil keeps falling, convergence is coming—and the likely direction is oil correcting back up.