2026.4.24 US Stock Brief | Chips Explode Higher, S&P and Nasdaq Both Hit Record Closes

Intel’s earnings dropped and the chip sector set the tone for the entire market. INTC surged nearly 24% in a single day, AMD followed with a 13.91% gain, NVDA up 4.32%, AMZN up 3.49%, META up 2.41%, MSFT up 2.13%. Tech ETF XLK gained 2.81%. The Nasdaq closed at 24,836.60, up 1.63%; the S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08, up 0.80% — both posting all-time closing highs.

The Dow lagged, slipping 0.16% to close at 49,230.71. Outside the chip chain, financials XLF fell 0.73%, healthcare XLV dropped 1.41%, and communications XLC lost 1.58% — clear sector divergence. Intel’s earnings reinforced the AI-chain-strong trade, but capital wasn’t pouring in across the board.

Other risk appetite indicators moved in the same direction. VIX fell to 18.71, down 3.11% intraday; the 10-year Treasury yield dipped roughly 1.3bp to 4.31%; the dollar index came in at 98.51, off 0.29%; WTI crude slid 1.51% to $94.40. The pullback in oil reflects geopolitical facts tilting toward de-escalation. On one side, easing signals: Iran’s foreign minister visited Pakistan and met with its army chief of staff, and Tehran’s main airport announced resumption of international flights to Turkey, Oman, and China starting April 25. On the other side, tension persists: the US Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel heading for an Iranian port, and Iran’s defense ministry responded that it still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Mixed, but the direction leans toward de-escalation.

Polymarket probabilities lay out this expectation clearly. On the near-term meeting front: a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 26 is at 32%, rising to 63% before April 30. On the long-term peace side: a permanent peace deal before April 30 is just 8%, and only 34% before May 31. The market is pricing in a “no further escalation” state — still far from permanent peace. That “no further escalation” alone is enough to put a floor under risk assets. The probability of normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz resuming by end of April remains at just 1% — the shipping route issue is unresolved, which caps how far oil prices can retrace.

Uncertainty on the Fed side is also narrowing. Polymarket shows 100% probability of rates held steady at the April meeting, and 98% probability of Kevin Warsh being confirmed as the next chair. Nobody’s adding bets on the pace of rate cuts in the near term, but a clear personnel path means long-duration capital can stabilize its repositioning expectations.

The real test comes next week: a cluster of Big Tech earnings lands alongside the Fed’s policy meeting. Reuters’ Wall St Week Ahead preview put it bluntly — tech-led earnings plus a Fed meeting, with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all reporting. The chip sector’s sharp rebound has temporarily eased market anxiety over AI capex, but with the S&P already at a record close, next week’s earnings and the Fed meeting will determine whether this breakout holds.