2026.4.22 US Stock Daily | Google's AI Chip Ignites Tech Rally, All Three Indexes Hit New Highs

All three indexes hit fresh highs. The S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90, up 1.05%. The Nasdaq finished at 24,657.57, up 1.64%. The Dow reached 49,490.03, up 0.69%. Tech ETF XLK led all sectors with a 2.20% gain—AMD up 6.67%, Google up 2.12%, Apple up 2.63%, Microsoft up 2.07%.

The catalyst was Google. Motley Fool’s headline said it plainly: Alphabet unveiled its next-gen AI chip and partner program, lifting US equities. Earnings season is also doing its part to sustain sentiment—the Associated Press reported at the close that GE Vernova and other major companies delivered fatter Q1 profits, fueling the Dow’s push to new highs.

The Middle East drama continues. Maersk confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains “firmly closed.” WTI crude settled at $92.13, up 2.81%, back on an upward trajectory. But prediction markets are far more sanguine than the headlines: Polymarket still prices a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 at 0%, only 16% by April 30, and gives just a 4% chance of normal Hormuz transit resuming before month-end. Separately, SpaceX warned the same day of heavy capital expenditures ahead, including GPU spending—the AI infrastructure arms race rolls on.

Two after-hours signals worth watching. Microsoft slipped 1.27% post-market, giving back part of its 2.07% regular-session gain—the only megacap showing weakness after hours. Tesla’s Q1 report was the bigger event of the evening: revenue of $22.39 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.41 both topped LSEG consensus of $21.92 billion and $0.37—a double beat on paper. But both Electrek and CNBC flagged the quality of that beat. The CFO confirmed on the earnings call that roughly $250 million in tariff refunds flowed through, stacked on top of warranty reserve releases and other one-time items; strip those out and automotive gross margin was just 19.2%. Deliveries of 358,000 units came in 7,600 below expectations, and inventory stretched from 15 days of supply in Q4 to 27 days. More critically, 2026 capex guidance was raised from $20 billion to over $25 billion. The stock, briefly up 4% after hours, reversed sharply. The narrative here isn’t beat versus miss—it’s that the beat wasn’t clean, and a $5 billion capex hike pushes the free cash flow story back yet another quarter.

On the Fed front, Polymarket prices a 99% probability of rates held steady at the April meeting—no suspense there. The VIX dropped to 18.92 and the 10-year Treasury yield held essentially flat at 4.29%. Neither the fear gauge nor rates followed the equity rally higher, suggesting the risk appetite recovery is a stock-specific event, not a broad repricing of risk.

The tape’s message is straightforward. Oil prices rose but the VIX fell back to 18.92 and the 10-year yield stayed near 4.29%—the risk appetite recovery is largely confined to equities. Geopolitical wrangling drags on but indexes kept climbing even as prediction markets crushed peace odds. The market is trading with a posture that says “failed negotiations don’t matter.” That posture holds only as long as earnings season keeps delivering proof of profits. If remaining reports this week show any heavyweight missing expectations, the highs currently propped up by the AI narrative will start looking fragile. Two things to watch: first, if Hormuz transit actually reopens, oil prices will snap lower—a reflexive positive for inflation expectations and the Fed’s rate path; second, whether big tech earnings can turn Google’s single-day spark into sustained sector-wide validation.